Dynamic fuel mapping for operational fire prediction using geospatial foundation models
Fire & Fuels Conference · 2026
Paul Bentley
FLARE Wildfire Research · University of Melbourne
Remote SensingFuel HazardFoundation ModelsGEDI LiDARAnnual Time Series10m ResolutionForest Metrics
The Problem
"Operational fire spread models need better fuel inputs"
Operational fire models like Spark and PHOENIX rely on fuel layers
that are static, manually updated, and spatially coarse. They assume a
uniform fuel response to time since fire — ignoring how growing
conditions, management, and fire severity fundamentally alter fuel trajectories
across Australia's diverse fire landscapes.
A Multi-Sensor Combination Challange
No single sensor captures every fuel attribute. Optical imagery
tracks phenology but can't penetrate canopy. Spaceborne LiDAR measures structure
but only in sparse footprints. Airborne surveys deliver wall-to-wall coverage but
are costly and infrequent. Field plots offer detail but lack scale. The challenge
isn't data scarcity — it's
fusing disparate sensors, resolutions, and cadences into operationally
consistent maps.
Our Approach
We fuse optical time series with spaceborne LiDAR through AlphaEarth — a geospatial model extracting structural and spectral features at 10 m resolution, enabling wall-to-wall fuel mapping ready for fire-spread and landscape risk models.
Monitoring Frequency
📅
Annual maps
Some metrics are best as annual layers - i.e. the current catalog
☀️
Seasonal maps
Some metrics are better at this frequency - under development
🕐
Monthly maps
Some metrics need finer time steps, i.e. crops & pasture - under development
The Project
Foundation models offer a different path: one unified representation
across sensors, seasons, and landscapes. We use AlphaEarth to fuse
optical satellite time series with field plots and GEDI LiDAR into
annual fuel maps of Victoria at 10m resolution.
The Platform
🚧Prototype under active development — methods and datasets under technical review; currently being tested with group land managers and fire management end-users.
FuelMaps delivers these datasets through a browser-based map
explorer — no GIS software required. Browse, query, and compare fuel metrics
at any location. Cloud-Optimised GeoTIFFs with per-pixel hover queries.
Custom reporting tools in the next batch.