Dynamic fuel mapping for operational fire prediction
using geospatial foundation models
Fire & Fuels Conference · 2026
Paul Bentley
FLARE Wildfire Research · University of Melbourne
Paul Bentley
Remote Sensing Fuel Hazard Foundation Models GEDI LiDAR Annual Time Series 10m Resolution Forest Metrics
"Operational fire spread models need better fuel inputs"
Operational fire models like Spark and PHOENIX rely on fuel layers that are static, manually updated, and spatially coarse. They assume a uniform fuel response to time since fire — ignoring how growing conditions, management, and fire severity fundamentally alter fuel trajectories across Australia's diverse fire landscapes.

A Multi-Sensor Combination Challange
No single sensor captures every fuel attribute. Optical imagery tracks phenology but can't penetrate canopy. Spaceborne LiDAR measures structure but only in sparse footprints. Airborne surveys deliver wall-to-wall coverage but are costly and infrequent. Field plots offer detail but lack scale. The challenge isn't data scarcity — it's fusing disparate sensors, resolutions, and cadences into operationally consistent maps.

Our Approach
We fuse optical time series with spaceborne LiDAR through AlphaEarth — a geospatial model extracting structural and spectral features at 10 m resolution, enabling wall-to-wall fuel mapping ready for fire-spread and landscape risk models.

Monitoring Frequency
📅
Annual maps
Some metrics are best as annual layers - i.e. the current catalog
☀️
Seasonal maps
Some metrics are better at this frequency - under development
🕐
Monthly maps
Some metrics need finer time steps, i.e. crops & pasture - under development
Foundation models offer a different path: one unified representation across sensors, seasons, and landscapes. We use AlphaEarth to fuse optical satellite time series with field plots and GEDI LiDAR into annual fuel maps of Victoria at 10m resolution.

🚧 Prototype under active development — methods and datasets under technical review; currently being tested with group land managers and fire management end-users.
FuelMaps delivers these datasets through a browser-based map explorer — no GIS software required. Browse, query, and compare fuel metrics at any location. Cloud-Optimised GeoTIFFs with per-pixel hover queries. Custom reporting tools in the next batch.
QR code
Explore the platform
fuelmaps.flarewildfire.app
🛰
EO Satellites
Sentinel-2 · Landsat
Multi-temporal · 10m
📡
GEDI LiDAR
L2A / L4A
Sparse footprints
📋
Field Plots
DSE Report 82
~18,000 plots · 5 strata
⚙️
Annual Pre-processing
Cloud-free compositing · multi-year temporal stack · radiometric normalisation
AlphaEarth
AlphaEarth Embedding
ViT-B/16 · pre-trained on 2.4B Australian satellite patches
Frozen weights · 10m resolution · generalises across biomes
↓     ↓
Hazard Branch
Training labels Field guide ratings (DSE Report 82)
~18,000 plots · 5 fuel strata
Overall · Surface · Near-surface
Elevated · Bark · Combined FH
Structure Branch
Training labels GEDI L2A/L4A footprints
Aboveground biomass (t/ha)
Canopy height (rh98)
Plant area index · FPC
🗺️
Annual Fuel & Forest Maps
10m resolution · wall-to-wall Victoria · within 2 weeks of imagery
Cloud-Optimised GeoTIFF · 2017–2025 time series
Evaluation & Validation
Spatial block cross-validation · independent field verification
Accuracy metrics reported per stratum and biome
Current Data Catalogs
Annual 2017–2025 · wall-to-wall Victoria · Cloud-Optimised GeoTIFF via dynamic tile server
Fuel Hazard
10m · 2017–2025 DSE Report 82
Overall FH · Surface FH · Near-Surface FH · Elevated FH · Bark FH · Combined FH
Fuel
Load
10m · 2017–2025 GEDI L4A
Aboveground Biomass Density (t/ha)
Fuel
Type
10m · 2017–2025 NBIC ACS Stage 2
Bushfire Fuel Classification (BFC)
Forest Metrics
10m · 2017–2025 GEDI + LiDAR fusion
Foliage Projective Cover · Foliage Height Diversity · Canopy Height (rh98) · Plant Area Index